THE DEBT TRAP IS HERE – AN OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

1. Background: We recall that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu met the overall public debt as at June 30, 2023, at N87.379trillion. By December 31 2023, it had climbed to N97.340trillion; and to N144.665trillion by December 31 2024. By December 31 2025, the debt ballooned to N159.276trillion. This is an increase of N71.897trillion in less than 3 years. Despite the devaluation of the naira, the domestic and foreign component of the debt as at June 30 2023 was N54.130trillion ((61.95%) and $43.159billion (38.05%) respectively and as at December 31 2025, it was N84.849trillion (53.27%) and $51.856billion (46.73%) respectively.

2. Debt Service is Not Sustainable: Aggravated borrowing by Tinubu’s FGN translates into high debt service obligations. Data from the Budget Office of the Federation indicates that in 2023, aggregate FGN revenue was N11.884trillion while debt service was N7.664trillion being 64.49% of revenue; in 2024, aggregate FGN revenue was N20.980 trillion while debt service was N12.630trillion being 60.2% of revenue; the available 2025 figures in the MTEF 2026-2028 shows that the aggregate federal revenue of January to July was N13.665trillion while debt service was N9.814trillion being 71.8% of revenue. This is an average of 64.49% debt service to revenue over the three years. For every N1 earned, we are using 64.49K to service debts. Debt service obligations have outstripped the growth in aggregate revenue. S.41 (2) of the FRA provides that Government shall ensure that the level of public debt as a proportion of national income is held at a sustainable level. This state of debt cannot meet the sustainability test. This level of debt service represents missed opportunities in education, health, housing, maternal and child health., etc.

3. Violation of Fiscal Responsibility Act: The great challenge is that these loans are being procured against the spirit and letter of the relevant enabling law, especially the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA). Governments in Nigeria by law can only borrow for capital expenditure, human development and for critical reforms of significant national impact. Pray, can the administration show Nigerians N71.897trillion worth of new investments in infrastructure or human development?

There is absolutely no transparency, accountability and popular participation in the manner of procurement and utilisation of these loans. The Debt Management Office contrary to S.42 (5) of the FRA refuses to make details of the debts available in the public domain. Also, the approving authority, being the National Assembly, has reduced the approval process to a rubber stamp function to be concluded within a few hours after presentation by the executive. Even military President Ibrahim Babangida gave Nigerians the opportunity to participate in the debate on proposals for International Monetary Fund loans and their conditionalities but a democracy fails to provide such opportunity to Nigerians.

4. Future of Nigerian Youths in Debt Shackles – Women are Pauperised: Some of these debts are long-term concessional loans with a repayment period of 40 years, including a 10-year moratorium. By the order of nature, most of the federal legislators and leadership of the executive, being old men, will not be available to pay this debt. They are burdening the Youths with debt, without giving the Youths the opportunity to participate in decisions that shackle their future. With less than 4.25% female representation in the National Assembly, loans are approved in hours without the voice and participation of Women who constitute the majority of the poor and who bear the brunt of the mismanaged economy. There is an inherent intergenerational and inclusivity flaw in a procedure where a NASS populated by fairly old men, with a very poor female representation commit the nation to debts to be paid by the next generation.

With high debt servicing obligations at average of 64.49% over the last three years, the government’s capacity to fund essential services and invest in human capital has been significantly eroded, leaving essential sectors like education, health, and agriculture persistently underfunded. These pressures disproportionately affect Women, Youths and Vulnerable populations, deepening structural inequality and perpetuating cycles of exclusion. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Multidimensional Poverty Index Report, revealed that 63% of Nigerians – 133 million people are affected by multidimensional poverty. This is driven largely by lack of access to health, education, decent living standards, unemployment, and economic shocks. Unfortunately, this figure has increased, surpassing 140m as of 2025, with both the rural and urban dimension. In rural communities, where our food is grown and our land cultivated, poverty is even more severe, with 75.5% of rural dwellers living below the poverty line. Urban areas are not spared, 41.3% of city dwellers struggle to meet basic needs. Children are among the hardest hit: 72.5% of Nigerians aged 0–14 live in poverty.

Bridging persistent lack of essential services to the people, increasing poverty, inequality and gender gaps demand targeted investments in gender-responsive and family-centred programmes.

5. Failure to set a Debt Limit: The President and the National Assembly have not complied with the provisions for setting a debt ceiling in accordance with S.42 (1) and (2) of the FRA. This is utter disobedience and contempt of the un-appealed judgement of the Federal High Court in In Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/302/2013 vis the Centre for Social Justice Limited by Guarantee (CSJ) V The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and 4 others.

6. No Guarantee that Borrowed Funds will Not be Mismanaged: The recent unrefuted allegation that allocations to states in excess of N800billion have been channeled to a slush fund for presidential campaign purposes do not inspire confidence. This recklessness amounts to economic treason against the people of Nigeria, especially the poorest of the poor. 

7. Our Demand: In the light of the foregoing, we demand the following:

• A moratorium on the procurement of new debts especially the FGN newly proposed $1.25 billion loan from the World Bank, titled the “Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration”.

• A debt audit to verify the milestone performance of the N159.276trillion debt, issues of value for money and compliance with law. 

• National Assembly opens the debt approval process to popular participation through public hearings and consultations. Women and Youths must be heard before approval of new loans.  The details of the proposed loans including their cost benefit analysis should be published on the website of NASS and DMO to inform public inputs.

• The Debt Management offices complies with its duty in S.44 (5) of the FRA: “Without prejudice to the specified responsibilities of the National Assembly and Central Bank of Nigeria, the Debt Management Office shall maintain comprehensive, reliable and current electronic database of internal and external public debts, guaranteeing public access to the information”.  The database should list all debts – their source, purpose, tenor, interest rate, moratorium period, amount so far paid, amount outstanding, the contractual documents including loan agreements, any conditionalities, fees and details of consultants who negotiated the loan etc.

• The President and National Assembly set up the Debt Ceiling in compliance with S.42 of the FRA.

• Strengthening Domestic Resource Mobilization as alternative to the continued borrowing by enhancing tax administration at all levels of governance, closing up revenue leakages, enforcing remittance of revenue collected by MDA, ensuring prudent and efficient management of public resources and above all, institute measures to reduce waste.

• Open and transparent investigation into the alleged N800billion slush fund taken from the allocation of states for election campaign purposes. All persons involved should be prosecuted.

We call for critical action by Nigerian Youths to stop the outgoing generation from leaving debts instead of assets as their inheritance. Also, Nigerian Women must insist on their voice being at the table for critical decisions that pauperise them and their children.

The future is bleak for a people who have been told to make sacrifices through enduring hardships under fuel subsidy removal and floating of the naira while increased revenue accruing to FGN has been taken up by debt service. 

Signed

1. ActionAid Nigeria, AAN
2. Centre for Social Justice, CSJ
3. The Centre for Information Technology and Development. CITAD
4. The Statecraft Report
5. Accountability Lab
6. Centre for Development Support Initiatives – CEDSI Nigeria
7. Christian Aid
8. Africa Centre for Leadership, Strategy and Development, Centre LSD
9. Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, CISLAC
10. Africa Network for Environment and Economic Justice, ANEEJ
11. Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative, PLSI
12. The BudgIT Foundation