The euphoria of the 2019 elections is in the air. It can literally be felt as it has been heightened by the one-week postponement of the elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Nigerians are desirous of being part of credible, free and fair elections that will produce leaders across the various cadres. INEC, the electoral umpire, is at the centre and heart of conducting the credible election process and its acts and omissions will go a long way in determining the outcome of the elections and whether Nigeria will be in peace or in turmoil in the coming days.
The postponement was unexpected as the chairman of INEC, Yakubu Mahmud, had assured and reassured every stakeholder that INEC was ready and prepared for the elections. It therefore came as a rude shock, five hours, 15 minutes to the commencement of the presidential election, having been announced at a time most reasonable persons had gone to asleep. First, the fact that there would be presidential and National Assembly elections was known after the 2015 elections were concluded; there was nothing sudden about it. INEC even released its calendar for the elections over a year ago and the hype around the elections had been built to a crescendo. The reasons given for the postponement do, therefore, not seem well-grounded.
For logistics, every one knows that despite the inclement weather that civil domestic flights operated throughout last week. It is also a fact that military operational aircraft were available to help in the logistics and deployment. It is also known that cargo buses and trucks are not in short supply throughout Nigeria and they were not also fully deployed for the logistics. Cargo buses would take not more than two to three days to reach the farthest points in Nigeria from Abuja. Essentially, INEC has not demonstrated that it had used or unsuccessfully attempted to use the maximum of available transport resources in Nigeria to guarantee that all election materials reached the desired destinations. If the movement of the election materials had started on time, there was no reason informing the citing of logistic as a major challenge. It would be a challenge if INEC had awaited until the last minute. Any reasonable agency moving, for instance 100,000 cartons of goods and materials and having seen that it could only move an average of 5,000 in a day and has less than five days to the event for which the materials are needed would have known of the statistical and logical impossibility of holding the event. INEC would have alerted the nation at least five days to the event so that costs would be reduced.
Further, the fact that the ICT Department of INEC informed the leadership that reprogramming card readers would take five day shows that the leadership had knowledge of the inevitability of the postponement many days before Friday. Alternatively, is the chair of INEC insisting that he got the advice from the ICT department on Friday night? The probability of the leadership just being advised on Friday evening is remote; it is possible but not probable in the circumstances.
For sabotage, INEC cited the burning of its offices and materials in Plateau, Abia and Anambra states. The protection of lives and property is the fundamental reason for the existence of government. Nigeria budgets billions of naira every year for the maintenance of law and order and the security agencies. With the charged political atmosphere in the country, it was extremely naïve that security was not reinforced around INEC offices or that firefighters were far off from INEC. Even the fires suggest insider dealings. For example, in Awka, Anambra State, only the card readers were targeted by the saboteurs. Nigerians are interested in the details of those arrested, being investigated or who are being prosecuted. The idea that someone or a group of persons can activate this level of discomfort to the entire Nigerian society and thereafter, get away with it, without sanctions, encourages impunity.
From the foregoing analysis, it is clear that a wonderful opportunity to make a very good impression has been lost and the only way for INEC to reclaim its credibility is to organise very free and fair elections. For the avoidance of doubt, the leadership of INEC needs to understand that if it was not under any form of pressure by the authorities or any group of persons whatsoever, and this led to the postponement; Nigerians may be unforgiving if the elections under any guise are bungled. INEC has publicly stated that the postponement was not due to political interference or paucity of funds and Nigerians will hold the leadership to these words. It is humbly suggested that if any person, agency or group of persons is engaged in any act or omission that will hinder credible polls, INEC should not waste time in publicly calling out the agency. Failure to do so on time would heap all the blame on it in the event of any other major failing.Therefore, a clear opportunity has crystallised for INEC to write its name in gold in the annals of Nigeria’s election management.
It should take measures to safeguard uncollected PVCs so that they are not available for any political party or candidate to use and rig the elections. It would be a good practice if it is possible to document and have the particulars of these cards put up on a public portal.
The evidently contrived stalemate in Osun State should not be allowed to repeat at any election, especially the presidential election. Extant divisions and cleavages in Nigeria are deep and the possibility of post-election violence is not remote. Post-election violence may be fuelled by deep perception or conviction that elections were manipulated. Nigerians are praying against violence and various media sensitisation events have been held against violence in elections. We want to vote in peace and record the outcome in peace. But no one should deliberately provide a ground for unnecessary disagreements or brazenly provoke others. The joke of election riggers and manipulators mocking their victims to go to court is totally unacceptable. Let the umpire and every agency do their best and there may be no need for anyone to proceed to the tribunals.
Going forward, after the 2019 elections, the President, National Assembly and civil society must sit together and articulate comprehensive reforms to the country’s electoral system. Shutting down the country for a full day because of an election does not make sense. It leads to all manner of losses and it is a sign of underdevelopment. Technology should be introduced and the process should be automated. We do not need these PVCs, let every Nigerian citizen get a national identity card which will be used in all transactions involving Nigerians.We need to reduce the cost of elections and the losses associated with it.
