It is imperative for the Federal Government to design a concentric circle of investments, patronage and the desired economic growth, being an economy for Nigerians in Nigeria and in the Diaspora. This will entail using public procurement at all tiers to kick-start the economy through a Nigeria-First-Procurement policy. Goods, services and construction available in Nigeria should be accorded priority in public procurement through the full implementation of domestic preferences. High and inclusive economic growth cannot be achieved by prioritising the importation of goods and services that can be produced at home. Economic growth and development can only happen where there is a sense of ownership, patriotism and ‘Nigerianity’ from the highest levels of government to the street cleaner.

Nigeria must reduce its borrowing spree by not less than 50 per cent. New capital projects do not necessarily need to be funded from borrowing. Savings from the removal of petrol subsidy, savings from the foreign exchange subsidy, utilisation of the opportunity of increased oil price to produce and sell more oil, reduction of waivers and tax expenditures, etc, should position Nigeria to declare a limited moratorium on new debts. At least, a 50 per cent moratorium compared to extant borrowing. This would reduce the deficit and debt level over the medium and long term. No nation can pretend to grow when over 90 per cent of its retained revenue is dedicated to debt service. The savings from petrol and foreign exchange subsidies seem to have been dedicated to paying for a bloated governance structure at the federal and state levels and feeding the insatiable greed of elected office holders and high-level bureaucracy.

Our quest for more revenue to fund the public budget must take cognisance of our huge tax expenditure profile which over the years exceeded 70 per cent of retained revenue at the federal level. We must review the law and policy to ensure that not more than 10 per cent-15 per cent of retained revenue is dedicated to tax expenditure every year. Furthermore, virtual dead assets in petroleum refineries which continuously gulp huge resources in the proverbial ‘turn around maintenance’, which only turns around the pockets of the turnaround experts, cannot continue to be in the books of the Federal Government. They should either be privatised or must undergo concession. They should become a source of new revenue for the Federal Government.

Capital projects to be funded by borrowing must be backed by a rigorous cost-benefit analysis under section 44 of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. This would show the costs and benefits (social, economic, environmental, gender relations etc). Furthermore, such projects, especially projects in electricity, railways, health, etc., should be accompanied by a repayment plan/projection.  A railway project, if properly managed, can provide the resources through cost-reflective tariffs, etc., for debt service and payment of capital at the due time.  The facility should be on a route with adequate cargo or passenger traffic to generate sufficient funds for debt service. Building rails that require government subsidy to run effectively while the debt is still on the Federal Government books, instead of the Nigerian Railway Corporation, is antithetical to common sense. The full implementation of private sector investments and engagement in the rail sector is long overdue. Essentially, Nigeria can build up its stock of infrastructure without necessarily accumulating more debts that have no repayment plan.

The full implementation of the mandatory health insurance regime under the National Health Insurance Authority Act will generate sufficient funds for improvement in the health sector. With increased transparency and accountability in the management of the health insurance pool of funds over the medium term, the contribution of the health sector to GDP will more than double; out-of-pocket expenditure will reduce and Nigeria’s quest for universal health coverage will become more sustainable. The land and housing sector needs ground-breaking reforms. Since 1992, when the National Housing Act was enacted, proceeds of the contributions have not been accountably and transparently managed. It has been treated as a slush fund by all previous administrations. But the pool of funds, if properly managed, will catalyse the housing sector as a major contributor to economic growth, employment creation and value addition. Furthermore, land rights reform will create titles to millions of assets scattered across Nigeria and bring to life dead capital. According to the Presidential Technical Committee on Land Reforms, land reforms will unlock dead capital in a sum in the neighbourhood of N240tn.

For the aviation sector, the full implementation of Bilateral Air Service Agreements and Nigeria throwing its full diplomatic and sovereign weight behind Nigeria’s flag carriers is imperative for the sector to grow. Once Nigerian airlines show the capacity to ply routes, reciprocity should be the watchword. A situation where foreign airlines fly many times a week into Nigeria carrying Nigerians and others coming into the country while Nigerian carriers are frustrated from plying the routes should not be allowed to continue. We cannot be discussing hundreds of millions of trapped airline funds in foreign currency if the airlines are Nigerian-owned. Furthermore, designating a few goods and services as special growth poles can help replicate the “cement miracle.” The poser should be about the sectors where we have the comparative advantage for value addition.

The MTEF identified the challenges to macroeconomic stability which underpins growth to include ineffective management of production, investment and consumption, rising inflation, exchange rate volatility, high interest rate, etc. It states that rising inflation from policy distortions and supply shocks will be addressed through a sequenced and coordinated mix of trade, monetary and fiscal policies to improve economic performance and protect human welfare. In view of the foregoing, the harmonisation of monetary, fiscal and trade policies is recommended. There is a Monetary Policy Committee of high-level experts who assist the Central Bank of Nigeria in delivering on monetary policy management. There is no equivalent for the fiscal and trade policies. It is therefore imperative that a Fiscal Policy Committee, chaired by the ministers of Finance and Budget and National Planning, be established to oversee this critical sector as well as a high-level Trade Policy committee to be chaired by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.  The quarterly meetings of these committees will be complemented by a combined half-year and full-year meetings of the three committees. The purpose of the meetings is to review developments in the three sectors and guarantee convergence and resolution of all fiscal, monetary and trade policy challenges.

Finally, Nigeria must be bold to address and respond to its population challenge. A large population of youths without education, access to healthcare, knowledge and skills for effective participation in the modern economy is a time bomb. The population growth needs to be managed and controlled.

• Concluded