February 2026 CPI and Inflation Rate: A Review Eze Onyekpere Esq.
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April 24, 2026
- Posted by: Center for Social Justice
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1. National Inflation Profile
The recently published Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of February 2026 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals a slight drop in the headline inflation rate from 15.10% in January 2026 to 15.06% in February 2026, being a decrease of 0.04%. The 12 months preceding the latest report had seen the inflation figures easing. Comparing this with the same period last year, the headline inflation for February 2025 was 26.27% implying a 11.21% decrease within 12 months. On a month on month basis, the headline inflation was 2.01% as against -2.88% recorded in January 2026. This simply implies a higher rate of increase of average prices
compared to January 2026.
2. Food Inflation
Food inflation was reported at 12.12% year-on-year basis compared to 26.98% in February 2025 and on a month-by-month basis, it was 4.69%, an increase of 10.70% compared to January 2026 – 6.02%. NBS reports that the increase is attributable to some specific food items – beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet floor, yam flour, snails, avenger, cow peas, etc. Average annual food inflation declined to 19.08% compared to 37.40% in February of 2025. The continued decline in food inflation could be traced to the Federal Government policy that allowed grains and other foods to be imported into the country at almost zero tariff.
Food inflation in the country on a year-on-year basis had the highest rise in Kogi (26.91%), Adamawa (23.12%) and Benue (21.89%). It had the slowest rise in Katsina (5.09%), Bauchi (7.09%) and Imo (7.65%). On the other hand, the month-on-month basis top three fastest rises in food prices was recorded in Bayelsa (8.81%), Ebonyi (8.51%) and Edo (7.72%). The slowest rise on a month-on-month basis was recorded in Katsina (-.70%), Nasarawa (0.17%) and Kano (1.39%).
Kogi, Adamawa and Benue’s highest food inflation rise on year-on-year basis is surprising considering that these states are part of the food basket of Nigeria. However, this could be traced to the state of permanent siege and insecurity that has taken over the states over a period of time.
3. Core Inflation
This is about all items less farm produce and energy. This was reported on a year-on year basis at 15.88% as against 25.66% recorded in February 2025. On a month-on month basis, it was 0.89% as against -1.69% in January 2026. Generally, core inflation seems to be easing as the twelve-month average of 22% was 5.25% points lower than the 27.25% recorded in February 2025.
4. Sub-nationals’ Contribution to Inflation Profile
Further disaggregation shows the contribution of state fluctuations to the overall national price index for the month of February 2026. On a year-on-year basis, all item (prices of all items irrespective of classification) inflation rate was highest in Kogi (23.57%), Benue (22.85%) and Anambra (22.09%); whereas they were lowest in
Katsina (7.78%), Imo (11.66%) and Ebonyi (11.71%). However, on a month-on-month basis, the highest increases in inflation were recorded in Enugu (5.92%), Ogun (4.39%) and Anambra (4.11%); while the slowest rise and decline was recorded in Zamfara (-2.14%); Bauchi (-1.23%) and Katsina (-1.06%).
4. Sub-nationals’ Contribution to Inflation Profile
Further disaggregation shows the contribution of state fluctuations to the overall national price index for the month of February 2026. On a year-on-year basis all item (prices of all items irrespective of classification) inflation rate was highest in Kogi (23.57%), Benue (22.85%) and Anambra (22.09%); whereas they were lowest in Katsina (7.78%), Imo (11.66%) and Ebonyi (11.71%). However, on a month-on-month basis, the highest increases in inflation were recorded in Enugu (5.92%), Ogun (4.39%) and Anambra (4.11%); while the slowest rise and decline was recorded in Zamfara (-2.14%); Bauchi (-1.23%) and Katsina (-1.06%).
5. Urban and Rural Inflation
Urban inflation contributes more to the high inflation figures. Urban inflation currently stands at 15.53% year-on-year, being lower than the 28.49% recorded in February 2025. Rural inflation stood at 13.93% year-on-year, being lower by 8.80% points to the 22.73% of February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation was 2.55% while rural inflation was 0.71%.
This urban-rural inflation divide may not be unconnected to the forces of demand and supply. Urban areas command more resources, hence higher demand. Naturally, prices will rise when available resources are chasing few/available goods/services. Relating this with the major drivers of inflation (food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and accommodation services, transport, housing, water, electricity, gas, other fuel, education and health, clothing and footwear, etc.); it is clear that their demand is higher in urban areas than in the rural areas. For instance, in the rural areas, people grow significant portions of the food they consume, they live in their own houses, their expenses on utilities like water and electricity is low because they have alternative sources for them, and in critical situations, they can do without some of them. More so, effective demand is need backed by resources (ability to pay) and in most cases, these resources are not available to rural dwellers. Several studies have shown that the bulk of rural dwellers are poor.
6. Inflation Rate, Budget and Macroeconomic Fundamentals The Medium Term Expenditure Framework projects that inflation is to decline remarkably in the medium term, from an average of 16.5% in 2026 to 13.0% in 2027. Evidently, if the present trend continues, the budget inflation projection will be met. However, with the outset of the America Israel Iran war, the shutdown of the Straight of Hormuz and the upsurge in the price of crude oil, inflation may increase in the next couple of months. The rate of transport inflation is to an extent dependent on the international price of crude oil. It will also affect food and other divisional inflation indicators. The appreciating price of crude oil will positively affect Federation Account
revenue from crude oil sales. The oil benchmark price of about $64.85 per barrel will be surpassed at present prices in excess of $110 per barrel.
Furthermore, the full implementation of the 2026 federal budget with a huge deficit financing in excess of N30trillion will definitely have a negative effect on the inflation rate. Deficit financing through massive domestic and foreign borrowing or at worst, seigniorage will worsen the inflation effect. With a monetary policy rate of 26.5%, the cost of credit to investors and the private sector will continue to push prices towards and above the MPR.
7. The Right to Adequate Standard of Living and Driver(s) of Inflation in Nigeria The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 as amended (Constitution) in the “Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy” provides that the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. In S.16 (2) (d), the Constitution provides: “that suitable and adequate shelter, right to food and food security, reasonable national minimum living wage, old age care and pensions, and unemployment, sick benefits and welfare of the disabled are provided for all citizens”. The Constitution also made provisions for objectives in promotion of education and health.
Furthermore, Nigeria has obligations under article 11 (1) of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) vis: “The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right of everyone to an adequate standard of living for himself and his family, including adequate food, clothing and housing, and to the continuous improvement of living conditions..”. This obligation is a reaffirmed in the standard setting Universal Declaration of Human Rights: “Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control”.
Clearly, these national and international standards emphasise the rights to adequate food, clothing and housing and continuous improvement of living conditions as critical elements of the right to an adequate standard of living. The empowering rights of education and health also feature in the determination of the standard of living.
The greatest contributor (driver) of price increases within the period (year-on-year) is food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.03% and 0.80% month-on-month. Other top contributors include restaurants and accommodation services at 1.95% year on year and 0.26% month on month; transport at 1.61% year-on-year and 0.21% month-on
month; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel at 1.27% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. Education and health recorded 0.93% and 0.91% year-on-year and 0.12% and 0.12% respectively month-on-month; etc.
Essentially, food, housing, transport and clothing – critical components of the right to an adequate standard of living in the modern world are major drivers of inflation.
Education as an empowering right and the fulcrum for the validation of other rights took a major hit while health which is inextricably tied to the right to life is negatively affected. The right to life will be extinguished by the denial of health supporting conditions to the point of abrogation. It has been reported that average Nigerians spend up to 60% of their income on food, leaving them with 40% of their income for all other expenditure. When all these critical elements of an adequate standard of living are buffeted by inflation, the implication is an upsurge in poverty and misery.
8.The Gender Dimension
Nigerian women and girls are the face of Nigerian poverty. Their numbers were higher among the poor before the galloping inflation. In a period of rising prices, coupled with unemployment and stagnated economic growth, the likelihood of women and girls earning income or salaries that keep pace with the inflationary spiral is remote. High food inflation exerts undue pressure on the physical and mental of women and girls who are the managers of family food. Therefore, the Nigerian inflation crisis affects women and girls disproportionately. The inflation driving policies (fuel subsidy removal, increase in energy costs and floatation of the naira) appear to be gender neutral, but in actual fact, they are based on structural discrimination which denies the existence of apparent discriminations.
9. Other Issues
The removal of tariffs – zero duty and value added tax – on the importation of some cereals (husked brown rice, maize, sorghum, millet, wheat and beans) may have contributed to the reduction in food prices. This response which is both adhoc and temporal does not come without a cost – significant loss of revenue to the government as well as a disincentive to local farmers who are unable to favourably compete with the foreign products. The foregone revenue is an incentive and a subsidy which ideally should have been used to subsidise local food production instead of subsidising food production in foreign lands. Furthermore, such foregone revenue would have been used to drastically reduce Nigeria’s post-harvest losses estimated at 40% of agricultural products and valued at not less than N3.5trillion per annum.
The low level of food production in the country has been attributed to several factors including insecurity occasioned by activities of bandits and herdsmen in especially farming communities. Others include very low state investment in agriculture and lack of prioritisation of agriculture over several years. High transportation cost (including transportation of food) as a result of the removal of petroleum subsidy without adequate plan to cushion the impact further exacerbates high cost of goods (including food) to a near crisis level. Also, the floating of the exchange rate resulting in the erosion of the value of the local currency in an import-dependent economy meant an increased cost of importation. The plan to increase electricity tariff across board beyond the “band” interventions will definitely increase energy cost and spike inflation.
10. Conclusion and Recommendations
Going by the trajectory of Nigeria’s Multi Dimensional Poverty Report of 2022, over 150million Nigerians are multidimensionally poor, that is, they are poor in two or more key indicators. With a high level of inflation – beyond single digit, the numbers will continue to increase. The following actions are recommended for government, especially as it relates to the standard of living: Incentivise food production/agriculture
as a means of encouraging farming and farmers; prioritize agriculture in state planning and increase agricultural investment; in the medium term, start building food buffer stocks against inflation and famine; make conscious effort to tackle issues of insecurity/terrorism including banditry and activities of herdsmen. Federal and state budgets should be implemented to the letter and all borrowed funds should be prudently utilised for the purposes stated in the debt agreement.
Other recommendations are: the Monetary Policy Committee should consider reduction of the MPR; narrow the band between the deposit and lending rates to not more than 1000 basis points; full implementation of the local content policy in government procurement. Improve access to grid electricity by not just focusing on the proverbial cost reflective tariff which is already acknowledged as being paid by Band A customers without commensurate service, but reduce aggregate technical and commercial and collection loss estimated at not less than 40%. Losing 40% of the electricity resources/available energy due to inefficiencies is about incompetence of sectoral management.
Furthermore, invest in alternative and cheaper sources of fuel for transportation such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG); stop the propaganda of CNGI and start the work in providing conversion kits, new buses and incentivizing the proliferation of dispensing pumps and stations. Finally, undertake a gender analysis of the reforms leading to the galloping inflation.
